Written by Stan Lee, PoliticsNow Malaysia
KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - It looks like Umno president Zahid Hamidi has managed to box in the rival camps in his party that have been quietly biding their time for the right moment to topple him.
And this is good news for Zahid's boss and number one ally in Malaysia's ruling coalition, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who by comparison has been less successful in raising the performance of his own PKR party.
"Umno's landslide win at the Mahkota by-election is the confirmation that it has hit rock bottom and back on recovery trail," an analyst, who asked not to be named, told PoliticsNow Malaysia.
"It is the second successive win for Umno after the Nenggiri by-election and for now, Zahid is safe. The grassroots are jubilant - so for now, Zahid's foes within Umno won't dare rock the boat."
But as to how far Umno can rebound - whether it can recapture its hegemonic dominance and rule over all other political parties in Malaysia again or just stumble a few more steps forward before stopping once again remains to be seen.
PAS STEADY, BERSATU IMPLODING?
According to pundits, the key factor here would no longer be internal rivals such as the likes of former prime minister Ismail Sabri or former senior minister Hishammuddin Hussein, both of whom are believed to be dissatisfied with Zahid's leadership - but rather, external factors in the form of rival Malay parties such as Pas and Bersatu.
"The current instability in Bersatu is helping Umno. Despite Bersatu's insistence there is no proxy war between their top leaders like Muhyiddin Yassin versus Hamzah Zainuddin or Hamzah versus Azmin Ali, that there is sabotage and civil war is an open secret," said the analyst.
"This may be why Malay voters are taking a second look at Bersatu now compared to the previous general election where Malays voted blindly for Bersatu and Pas to protest the corruption in Umno," he added.
Many observers are of the view that while Pas, now the most powerful Malay party in the country, will be able to hold steady - Bersatu will not be able to rise above its current infighting and an implosion is on the cards.
They also believe the sheer political aggression of Bersatu's incoming deputy president Hamzah will force the rather placid Muhyiddin, a former prime minister and current president of the party, as well as Azmin, a former senior minister and tipped to be the next Bersatu secretary general, into corners from which both men will have little choice but to lash out or lose relevance.
'THEY ARE NOT FIGHTERS'
Within Umno, the prolonged quietness of the likes of Ismail and Hishammuddin is deafening after their earlier outbursts against Zahid for aligning Umno with Anwar's Pakatan Harapan coalition to form the country's current 'unity government' instead of with Muhyiddin's PN coalition.
"They are not fighters," Tian Chua, the former MP for Batu, told PoliticsNow Malaysia.
"The resistance in Umno against Zahid is fading. Whatever the reason, you have to acknowledge that the party is regaining strength. But this doesn't mean these by-election victories will be repeated at the next general election. A day is a long time in politics."
TEMPORARY RESPITE FOR ANWAR
Nonetheless, the current improvement in Umno's ability to recapture Malay support augurs well for the embattled Anwar, whose handling of the government has been sharply criticized. It is also a double-edged sword for Anwar's PKR party, which had hoped to gain Malay ground when he swept the PM's post but has so far shown little success.
The graft-tainted Zahid was once Anwar's political secretary when the latter was still in Umno and the decision to align Umno with Anwar's Pakatan was seen as a calculated one aimed to help his former boss as well as to inveigle his way of out a slew of corruption charges.
Yet Umno cannot retain power alone. In the next general election, it will still need the non-Malay vote that is still the bastion of Anwar's multiracial Pakatan coalition, which comprises the DAP, Amanah, Upko and his own PKR party.
What is possible though is that Umno might decide to dump Pakatan once the election results are out and strike a deal with Pas and Bersatu to reform the Malay 'unity government' that they had once shared and which had preceded Anwar's.
"That's politics for you. It's all up in the air. Bersatu fizzling out, Umno improving but no one knows by how much more. Even Pas might weaken, their support is not cast in stone," said the analyst.
"It gives Anwar some hope that he can still be PM again but he would be foolish to trust that the worst is over. A revived Umno will be a totally different animal - it might turn around and swallow Anwar and Pakatan. Ironic or not, many Pakatan supporters would actually see this as the exact karma Pakatan deserves for sacrificing principles and agreeing to sleep with its worst enemy just so Anwar can be PM while DAP and Amanah can get a taste of being in the government again."
Written by Stan Lee, PoliticsNow Malaysia
https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/
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