GE16 bombshell - Anwar seen dissolving Parliament next year, in line with Melaka & Johor state polls

Written by Stan Lee, PoliticsNow Malaysia 

KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - The rumor mills are grinding again in Malaysia's drama-filled political landscape that embattled Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is set to dissolve Parliament and call for snap general elections in 2026.

According to pundits, the speculation is tied to the Melaka state elections, which were last held on 20 November, 2021. According to election laws, this means that the next state election must be held latest by 25 February, 2027 - which would require the southern state's legislative assembly to be dissolved before the end of 2026.

"There is talk that Anwar will also dissolve the federal Parliament because it is too expensive to hold state and federal elections separately," former MP for Batu Tian Chua told PoliticsNow Malaysia.

But while it is not a must, unless the political situation was really compelling, pundits believe Anwar is more likely to agree to concurrent or simultaneous elections than not. Johor is another affected state and will have to follow even though it has until June 2027 to conduct polls."

AVOIDING THE HAJIJI TAINT IN GE16

However Sabah and its 'kingmaker' neighboring state of Sarawak are seen as 'exempt' - with cost-savings apparently immaterial since Anwar is not expected to follow Sabah, which needs to hold its state election on or before 8 December, 2025.

According to Tian, the timing might be too rushed for Anwar while others pundits were less tactful in their views - pointing the finger to the bribery scandal gripping Sabah chief minister Hajiji Noor and several of his assemblymen.

"At the moment Hajiji and his GRS coalition is like political poison. The (anti-graft agency) MACC may have gone quiet on it but nobody has forgotten the video tapes showing the group discussing bribes and how to distribute their spoils," a veteran political observer told PoliticsNow Malaysia.

"Definitely Anwar and his Pakatan Harapan coalition won't want to be tainted by that, especially since Anwar has been seen defending and protecting Hajiji. What sort of anti-corruption stance is that? Once the Sabah campaign begins, this will be the mother of all scandals there - even component parties withing GRS are considering pulling out to distance themselves from Hajiji."

SUDDENLY, IT MIGHT RAIN REFORMS - AS ANWAR WINDOW-DRESSES FOR GE16?

Be that as it may, it looks like Anwar and Pakatan have finally begun pressing the button to rain down on long-suffering supporters the slew of reforms and populist measures they had promised while fighting to win the 2022 general election.

Already, the Home Ministry helmed by Anwar's faithful lieutenant Saifuddin Nasution has reduced eligibility period for foreign spouses to apply for permanent residency to three years from five years previously. 

More importantly, it is also eliminating a dreaded Points System, which many have accused corrupt immigration officers of hiding behind to arbitrarily reject applications, even if these meet the stated criteria. Finally, new applications will have a processing period of six months compared to the previous murky practice where applications could hang for months or even years before any outcome was given.

"This is the rare ray of sunshine but let's see if team Anwar has the will and courage to really carry it out because the racism-tinged politics of the opposition parties like Bersatu and Pas will put pressure on them to delay or even chicken out," an analyst told PoliticsNow Malaysia.

"Yet this is an issue of basic transparency. For too long, immigration authorities have held too much discretion and in the name of corruption although they will use national security as their excuse. Cleaning up will benefit not only Non-Malays but also Malays so long as they have foreign spouses. Hopefully, the revamp will also extend foreign-born step-children or adopted children who are still minors and need to be with their parents. They have suffered for generations at the hands of the  unscrupulous and twisted policies of the previous corrupt governments."

MELAKA CRISIS RETURNS TO HAUNT ANWAR & PKR

An internal power struggle in Umno had erupted in 2021, forcing the then Melaka chief minister Sulaiman Ali into abruptly dissolving the state assembly and declaring snap elections. Four of his assemblymen had reportedly wanted to defect to Anwar's Pakatan coalition and form a new state government with Pakatan, Bersatu and other Umno assemblymen not aligned to Sulaiman.

Perceived as having the moral high ground, voters threw their support to Sulaiman and giving Pakatan the thumbs down. Umno won 21 of the assembly's 28 seats, or an increase of nine seats; Bersatu won two seats or an increase of one; while Pakatan could only win five seats compared to 11 before. Within Pakatan, Anwar's PKR party was the biggest loser, failing to win a single seat.

"It's karma returning to haunt Anwar. He was accused of poking fire and opening the door to the four 'rebels' to defect to his PKR party so that Pakatan could regain control of the Melaka state government," said the analyst.

"So now if Anwar is forced to call for a snap general election that he and Pakatan might prefer to delay as much as possible, it might be a fitting lesson to them to stop indulging in political shenanigans and schemes."

NEP & EDUCATION QUOTAS

Another comment that has drawn attention is the unexpected concession from Khairy Jamaluddin, the former health minister who has been sacked from Umno but yet able to increase his influence via a popular podcast that he hosts. 

“I think the pain point for non-Malays is not so much the advantages given to the Bumiputeras, it’s when their legitimate expectations are not attained — such as being unable to further their studies at local universities despite scoring straight As,” Khairy said in the latest episode of his Keluar Sekejap podcast.

“That is a really big pain point … If you can crack that, their dissatisfaction (surrounding) the NEP would be reduced,” he said.

While praised by the middle ground for the progressive and long-overdue views, Khairy was also seen by pundits as actually backing the suggestion from ex-premier Mahathir Mohamad that the race-discriminative and pro-Malay New Economic Policy was still needed despite having been in existence for more than 54 years.  

According to Khairy, Malay contractors and entrepreneurs still needed government intervention as non-Malays dominate various supply chains. He was reported as saying many Malay contractors or entrepreneurs find it hard to compete due to reasons such as non-Malay suppliers offering better rates and credit terms to those of their own race. “This is the reality that we always hear,” said Khairy.

Unfortunately the non-Malays too make the same argument, claiming that they always had to work twice if not three times as hard as the Malays just to get government contracts or preferential prices from suppliers.

Introduced in 1971 by the Umno-led government, Mahathir and his Umno successors have been criticized for extending the 30-year plan that critics say would only encourage a 'handout' mentality among the Malays. Anwar and Pakatan, when in the opposition, had vowed to replace the NEP with an alternative that was based on needs, rather than community or skin color.

Given his performance since controversially snatching the PM's post in the aftermath of the 2022 general election, it is doubtful Anwar will have the stomach to implement a new plan or risk loss of Malay support including from Umno, the ally party in his unity government most crucial to his survival as PM.  . 

However, with an eye on the next general election, the country's 16th, there's a chance he might some educations and business quotas for the non-Malays, who form the bulk of his support base.

"These should be phased out not for votes but simply because they are what is needed for long-term structural reform of the country's economy," an economist had told PoliticsNow Malaysia, referring to the quota system. 

"But I wouldn't hold my breath because Anwar and Pakatan have shown themselves to be hardcore politicians and not reformists as they promised. So they will try to give only the very minimum they think they can get away with, rather than reform the real rot. Just like with (ex-premier) Mahathir Mohamad, team Anwar will close an eye to things like brain drain. They will continue to inflate the civil service rather than trim the fat. We can only hope they will be better than this."  

Written by Stan Lee, PoliticsNow Malaysia

https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/