Malays making up their minds to dump Anwar? Latest ruse backfires on Anwar & Zahid, while Ismail Sabri gets sympathy
KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - In a switch, unusual but long suspected, it looks like Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Hamidi is tightening his hold over his boss, the embattled Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
And the Umno president is not letting go. Instead the 77-year old Anwar can be expected to surrender more ground as his PKR party and Pakatan Harapan coalition continue their plunge into public disfavor due largely in part to his own ill-judgment and poor political sense.
"Everything goes to Umno. It is now very clear the so-called puppet is actually the puppet-master and vice-versa.," a Pakatan insider told PoliticsNow Malaysia.
"From the Ayer Kuning by-election to the corruption probe against (ex-premier) Ismail Sabri, whatever Zahid and Umno wants, Zahid and Umno gets."
AYER KUNING & ISMAIL SABRI
Ismail Sabri, the country's 9th PM
The insider was referring to the widely-held view that if not for political support from Umno, and Zahid specifically, Anwar would collapse immediately - no matter that on paper Umno only contributes 30 seats to Anwar's super-majority in Malaysia's 222-seat Parliament.
"It's all about Malay support. Without it, you can't win any general election, you can only hope to form a unity or coalitional government," an analyst told PoliticsNow Malaysia.
"This is exactly what Anwar did in 2022 when Zahid agreed to ally Umno with Pakatan after the general election failed to yield a clear winner. Once Umno and Pakatan scraped together the minimum majority, then only did the other coalitions like Sarawak's GPS and Sabah's GRS follow to give Anwar his super-majority. But if Umno pulls out and Anwar loses this minimum majority, then GPS and GRS might decide to join another coalition to form a new government. After all, GPS, GRS and Umno were part of the previous government led by the PN coalition headed by Muhyiddin Yassin's Bersatu and Hadi Awang's Pas parties."
Indeed, Anwar and his PKR party have failed to increase their Malay support despite Anwar going all-out to renege on reforms that might be seen as diminishing Malay political dominance. Instead his moves only served to critically erode the non-Malay support that formed the bulwark of his own relevance and Pakatan's in Malaysian politics ever since the late 1990s.
However, Umno has fared better with the 71-year-old Zahid able to halt the slide in the once-mighty Malay nationalist party. Since the 2022 general election, Umno has won two by-elections in a row and the third acid test is looming in Ayer Kuning, Perak. Can Umno defend the state seat that became vacant following the death of its legislative assemblyman over the weekend?
Already, Amanah - one of the four component parties that make up Anwar's Pakatan coalition - has rushed to announce that it will not contest the seat as it did in 2022 but will thrown its full support behind Umno.
This has raised eyebrows as has the lukewarm response from Umno and the Anwar administration to news that former prime minister Ismail Sabri had been rushed to hospital after collapsing at home on Saturday.
Even more shocking was news that four former aides linked to Ismail had been arrested by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission on Sunday over allegations of money laundering and corruption, said to involve millions of ringgit.
"Whether Ismail Sabri fainted because of his former aides or not, what is more pertinent is that he is a credible rival not only to Anwar but more immediately to Zahid," said the analyst.
"As the prime minister who preceded Anwar and coming from the Umno party, the cool response from both Anwar's government and from Umno is certainly unusual. There is already talk Anwar is using the MACC as tool against his political rivals so the Ismail news just adds on to that perception - that he is helping Zahid to ward off Ismail in the Umno party election which will be held next year. Usually a corruption scandal goes a long way to stop a strong candidate but Zahid's own record is pretty muddy. If anything, I think there will be further backlash for Anwar and Zahid."
MACC BACKLASH FOR ANWAR & ZAHID, SYMPATHY FOR ISMAIL SABRI
Indeed, a chunk of Anwar's current unpopularity stems from his government's sudden withdrawal of 47 corruption charges against Zahid. The shock decision cemented the simmering speculation that he had promised to free Zahid and another Umno ex-prime minister, Najib Razak, of their corruption cases in exchange for Umno's agreement to form a unity government with Pakatan in 2022.
Since then Anwar has been accused of frequently using the MACC to witch-hunt critics, opposition rivals and old enemies including former premier Mahathir Mohamad and the late former finance minister Daim Zainuddin. Even allies from his own PKR party such as Selangor chief minister Amirudin Shari have not been spared, with the MACC accused of probing Amirudin's ex-aides as part of an alleged Anwar plot to force Amirudin's resignation.
At the same time, the MACC is also accused of stonewalling when it comes to those who come under Anwar's perceived protection, such as Sabah chief minister Hajiji Noor whose assemblymen were caught on video, allegedly discussing the distribution of bribes.
As for Zahid, who has purged Umno of his most vocal critics and is disliked by party-mates for aligning Umno with Anwar for self-interest, a hostile move against the popular and mild-mannered Ismail is likely to increase his own unpopularity in the party while eliciting greater sympathy for Ismail.
"This is what is wrong with Anwar and Zahid. Sheer dingbat and might-is-right politics. They don't seem to realize this is no longer OK with many Malays while non-Malays voted for Anwar precisely because they wanted cleaner and more professional leaders. Who can say Anwar and Zahid are professional?" said the Pakatan insider.
MALAYS TO STICK WITH PAS & BERSATU AS DISTRUST FOR ANWAR GROWS?
Malays, who form more than 55 percent of Malaysia's 33 million population, are divided in their political support. In the past, Umno was their unquestioned party of first choice despite its culture of corruption. It was only in 2018 that they finally gave up on the party, frustrated and angry at its inability to reform and mostly at the multi-billion dollar 1MDB corruption scandal involving Najib.
In the 2022 general election, Malays voted mostly for Pas and Bersatu while showing Umno the door. In the next general election which must be held by February 17, 2028 the same broad pattern is likely to be repeated, albeit with some variations.
The Muslim-centric Pas is expected to increase its 49 seats but the rise is likely to be capped by concerns it will not be able to govern Malaysia in a modern and efficient way due to its overly religious and rather regressive focus. While Bersatu is expected to lose some seats due to infighting and factionalism among its leaders, the jury is still out on this - with some watchers also predicting it will retain most of its seats as Malays were now even more wary of Anwar than before due to his political shenanigans and drama-filled tenure.
Umno is predicted to win between 50 to 60 seats compared to 30 previously, with most of its gains to come from Anwar's PKR party and from Amanah, which like PKR has failed to stand out or shine since becoming a part of the government.
"The sentiment on the ground is that Malays will opt to stick with Pas and Bersatu because they still don't trust Anwar or Pakatan," said the analyst.
"If anything, it appears Malays are more decided than before not to vote for Anwar. They may give Umno another chance especially if Zahid is replaced by his deputy president Mohamad Hasan or even Ismail Sabri. If there is a new leadership in Umno, it can get its 50 to 60 seats although these may come at PKR and Amanah's expense. Otherwise, those who voted for the Pakatan parties will throw their support to Pas and Bersatu, which will then consolidate their positions and form the next government."
Written by Stan Lee, PoliticsNow Malaysia
https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/
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