Anwar to make Zahid Home Minister again? KDN to go Umno, MITI to PKR in power swap involving Zafrul, Amirudin & Saifuddin?

 Written by Stan Lee, PoliticsNow Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - Speculation is swirling that embattled Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is preparing to unleash another round of complex political manoeuvring aimed to hand his Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Hamidi a second portfolio - the powerful Home Ministry.

Insiders say the daring move, if it comes, will at the same time help to resolve Anwar's dilemma of what to do when the senator-ships of current Home Minister Saifuddin Nasution and another Anwar ally, Tengku Zafrul, expire later this year on December 2.

"The talk is MITI will go to PKR and the Home Ministry to Umno,"  an insider in Anwar's PKR party told PoliticsNow Malaysia. 

"Anything can happen. Anwar is a loose cannon like Trump but without the business smarts. Anwar may ram it through because he thinks he is still very popular and the non-Malays won't dare to vote for the opposition because they fear parties like Pas and Bersatu are too Malay-centric but anti-Chinese as well as anti-Indian."

ZAHID & ZAFRUL THE WINNERS?

Zahid (left), Zafrul (right)

MITI is the Ministry of International Trade now helmed by Zafrul who like Zahid are from Umno, a party that provides crucial support to Anwar's unity government. 

Saifuddin is a member of the PKR party and a long-time Anwar loyalist. Although both Saifuddin and Zafrul failed to win any seats in Parliament during the 2022 general election, they were rewarded with positions in Anwar's Cabinet after they were appointed by him to the Senate in December 2022. Their two-year terms are due to end on December 2, 2025 but while Saifuddin's tenure can still be extended for another term, it will be the end of the road for Zafrul who is already on his second term as Senator unless there is a snap general election before then and he is able to win a seat.  

The urbane and well-educated Zafrul has already made public his desire to jump from his current party Umno to Anwar's PKR amid talk that Anwar had promised to make him chief minister of Selangor, the country's richest and most-developed state. The current chief minister of Selangor is PKR's Amirudin Shari, who reportedly is unwilling to stand down despite pressure from his party boss Anwar.

"It will be condemned as the most unscrupulous deal from Anwar, another sell-out and betrayal of his coalition's reform agenda. But do you think it will stop him so long as he appeases Zahid and Umno and get what he wants to preserve his own power?" said the insider.

Indeed while the deal might seem workable on paper, the elephant in the room remains the massively corruption-tainted Zahid, who was controversially cleared of 47 graft charges linked to his days as Home Minister during the time when the disgraced and jailed Najib Razak was prime minister. 

ANWAR TO CHALK ANOTHER 'FAIL' ON HIS REFORM REPORT CARD?

Suspicion had clouded Anwar's formation of a unity government, pulled together with the barest of majority after Zahid pushed Umno into a reluctant alliance with Anwar's Pakatan Harapan coalition. For months, accusations flew that Anwar had struck a shady deal with Zahid as well as Najib, who as Umno's former president still wielded influence. Despite denials by the trio, the rumors have never died. 

Anwar is believed to have promised Zahid and Najib freedom from their corruption charges and when his government abruptly withdrew its case against Zahid, it only added fuel to the fire. The move not only backfired on Anwar's credibility as an honest leader, making him the most unpopular prime minister in recent history, but also seriously undermined the ability of his PKR party and Pakatan coalition to win again when their five-year term ends in late 2027.

"It will be the greatest joke to make Zahid Home Minister again and a real slap in the face for all those who voted for Anwar as he had campaigned on bringing to book all the corrupt bigwigs," an analyst told PoliticsNow Malaysia. 

"Now his government has freed Zahid and Anwar has also admitted he was the one who submitted a royal pardon application for Najib even though an appeal for pardon cannot be made until Najib has served six years. Another nail to the Anwar and Pakatan coffin is the perception of how Anwar had tried to hide an addendum to the partial pardon Najib has received. The addendum would allow Najib to spend the rest of his term in house arrest. Obviously public anger over that hasn't died and neither do voters believe the plots to free Najib have gone away for good. It's just a matter of time and all eyes are on Anwar to further reveal himself, what his true colors are really like. And this may be his final downfall - to overestimate himself and underestimate voters' willingness to throw him out."

SAIFUDDIN & AMIRUDIN THE LOSERS?

Saifuddin (left), Amirudin (right)

Indeed, the costs are sky-high but many familiar with Anwar's temperamental nature fear that he will give in to political foolishness, while using political 'expediency' as his excuse.

Zahid and Umno had raised a stink when news first broke that Zafrul had spoken to Anwar about defecting to PKR. Giving them the Home Ministry, perceived to be one of the most lucrative breeding grounds for 'juicy' and illicit deals, may as good as instantly soothe their ruffled feathers.   

Saifuddin would necessarily be the collateral damage in the deal but being Anwar's devoted follower, he is unlikely to put up a fight at being shifted out to another ministry or well-paying job at one of the many government-linked companies.

According to pundits, Zafrul would be the other big winner after Zahid - scoring the Selangor chief minister's post in an exchange with Amirudin, who will then take over his MITI post.

Like Saifuddin, Amirudin will be seen as the other loser in the deal. Although the MITI post is a high-profile one, it would not allow Amirudin to flex his political muscle as much as his current job as head of the Selangor state government does. Nonetheless, the 45-year-old Amirudin may have little choice but to finally give in to the pressure heaped on him by his party boss.

BY-ELECTION, STATE ELECTIONS, GE16?

Amirudin too will have to vacate his Sungai Tua state seat to pave the way for a snap by-election as Zafrul would not be able to head the Selangor government without a seat in the state's legislative assembly. With Amirduin's endorsement, Zafrul is expected to finally win a seat of his own, albeit a state rather than a federal one.

"This is what has given rise to talk of a snap general election this year. With a by-election looming in Selangor for Amirudin's Sungai Tua seat and the Sabah government having to hold a state government election on or before December 8 this year, some think Anwar will hold the 16th general election synchronized with Sabah and Sarawak this year," said the analyst.

"But that's quite impossible. Everyone is not ready and you need things like seats distribution amongst the coalitions to be settled first, so GE16 this year is too far-fetched. But what is now accepted as a given is Anwar will dissolve the federal Parliament in 2026 and hold GE16 synchronized with Melaka either late next year or early 2027. All the other states in Peninsular Malaysia including Johor will have to follow."

Anwar, who swept to power in 2022, needs only hold the next general election by February 17, 2028; Sabah by December 8, 2025; Sarawak by July 4, 2026; Melaka by February 25, 2027; Johor by June 20, 2027 and Selangor by November 18, 2028. Under election rules, the federal Parliament and the various state assemblies have to be dissolved two months before their respective election deadlines.

AGONG & ACTING AGONG

Another key factor that may influence the timing of the federal elections is the ill-health of the King, Sultan Ibrahim of Johor, who is now overseas for medical treatment. There is talk that Sultan Ibrahim may delegate more of his tasks as King to his deputy the Sultan of Perak, Sultan Nazrin. 

"By the middle of this year, we will know more if Sultan Ibrahim has been advised by his doctors to take a break so as to recuperate fully. If he does, will Sultan Nazrin step up as Acting Agong and for how long? Generally, whoever is the constitutional monarch should not affect the political landscape but the King's permission is needed for many matters including dissolution of Parliament and the appointment of ministers," said the insider.

"I don't know if Zahid being reappointed as Home Minister will be objected to by Sultan Ibrahim or Sultan Nazrin on the grounds of his corruption cases but so long as Anwar advises it, they will usually have to endorse the PM's recommendation." 

"To most in the political landscape, there is little difference between Saifuddin and Zahid. Some say Saifuddin is cleaner than Zahid but do you see any improvement in the Home Ministry and Immigration? So basically Saifuddin has no one but himself to blame for doing next to nothing, as good as zero legacy as Home Minister if he gets kicked out by Anwar. As for Zahid, if he gets his way with Anwar, then it's happy days again for him and Umno!" the insider added.

Written by Stan Lee, PoliticsNow Malaysia

https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/