KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - Rumors of a plot to unseat Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and replace him with the likes of Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan is going viral again.
According to the myriad posts on social media, "the plot is from the inside" with many in Anwar's fractious unity government "fed up" with the current narcissistic and temperamental rule, excessive overseas trips, insufficient attention to a still fragile economy and refusing to confront the dilemma his coalition allies know they will have to face at the next election due to his refusal to keep promises made in the past.
"Things seem to be spiraling out of control for someone. Actually that is putting it mildly. Things are going haywire," wrote commentator Syed Akbar Ali on the speculation.
"Everyone from Perlis to Sabah is menyampah (Malay for fed up) with someone. This includes his own people."
FROM PERLIS TO SABAH - A SURFEIT OF DRAMA & SHENANIGANS UNDER ANWAR?
Indeed, too much drama and political shenanigans are clouding Anwar's rule. To say that long-time supporters of his Pakatan Harapan coalition which include his PKR party, the DAP, Amanah and Upko are disappointed is perhaps an understatement. To voters, many of whom have hailed Anwar for decades, it is bizarre even surreal, that he would waste the opportunity he fought so hard for - now that he's finally in the position to make a difference.
Instead of pushing through the reforms he promised, Anwar has been stonewalling and worse still, has become even more 'iron-fisted' than those he used to criticize including legendary ex-premier Mahathir Mohamad. Many in the country lost faith and wrote Anwar off the day he was seen to allow his communications minister to stifle freedom of speech by using industry watchdogs such as the MCMC and even more sinisterly, the police and graft-busters the MACC, to apparently intimidate and even incriminate critics.
"Anwar was the last political leader the people hadn’t tested," wrote political website Finance Twitter in a report.
"Malaysians have experienced governments led by each of the major party coalitions in Malaysian politics since the fall of the Barisan Nasional government in 2018. With Opposition Perikatan Nasional in disarray and people disillusioned of meaningful reforms, Anwar was taking advantage – ignoring reforms."
"(But) a week is a long time in politics, let alone three years. After two years, Anwar has increasingly become unpopular largely because people do not see any reforms he had promised, and partly because his administration looks eerily familiar to the previous Barisan Nasional government, where the culture of corruption, cronyism, racism, discrimination and whatnot flourished," added the report.
ENTER MR FORMULER - BUT IS MOHAMAD HASAN READY?
Mohamad Hasan who is also Foreign Affairs Minister, left, & Zahid who is also Deputy PM, right
The 77-year-old Anwar's popularity had dropped to 50% in October 2023 from 68% in December 2022 when he was elected. The same polling data, released by the Merdeka Center, showed a further 60% of voters also said Malaysia was going in the wrong direction.
But here begins the conundrum of, if not Anwar, then who next after him? And when would the 'replacement' take place - before or after the next general election, which must be held by 2027 at the latest?
"It's not that easy because what we have now is a unity government consisting of several big coalitions led by Anwar's Pakatan," an analyst told PoliticsNow Malaysia.
"There is also the Umno-led Barisan Nasional, Sarawak's GPS and Sabah's GRS. But so long as there's consensus on who should be the replacement, it's not that difficult either. Finding the pressure point to make Anwar give way gracefully is also not that tough. Timing is the one that's more tricky. For solid pacts like GPS, it makes more sense to wait till the next election but for the rest including the parties in Anwar's own Pakatan, it might be suicide to wait another three years," the analyst said.
"Most crucial of all is whether the replacement candidate is ready. It's an open secret that Umno's Mohamad Hasan is the favorite PM choice if the current composition of the unity government is to be preserved. Actually, it should be Sarawak's Abang Jo whose capability is ahead of any of the current leaders but the political reality is too stacked against a Malay-Muslim not from West Malaysia to become PM. Even so, I would still suggest to Pakatan, Umno and GRS to be brave and give Abang Jo a try," the analyst continued.
"If not, then the crucial question to ask is whether Mohamad Hasan is ready. Not technically as he is seen as a steadier character and a more serious worker compared to Anwar but rather, will Mohamad Hasan's Umno party support him? Will his corruption-tainted party boss Zahid Hamidi, who is Anwar's close ally, agree to make way for Mohamad?" added the analyst.
In the 2022 general election, none of the coalitions won enough seats to form a government. It was only with the help of the King that Anwar was able to cobble together a unity government to lead the country's 222-seat Parliament. Anwar and Zahid combined Pakatan's 82 seats with Umno's 30 to eke out a wafer-thin majority - with the GPS and GRS coming on board a little later to fend off the Opposition's main bloc, the Perikatan Nasional led by the Malay-centric Bersatu and Pas parties.
How will the dust eventually settle is yet to unfold. However, many pundits predict that Mohamad Hasan, whom some also call 'Mr Formuler', will challenge Zahid for the Umno presidency when the party's next leadership election takes place in 2026. Although that might seem a bit late for Mohamad Hasan, yet if he wins, he would be stewarding Umno into the nation's next general election. Given Mohamad's relatively 'clean' record and overall popularity, pundits are confident Umno will win more seats if Zahid was no longer its president.
STOP BRAGGING, GET TO WORK
Sarawak's dynamic premier Abang Jo
As for Anwar, who is still on the defensive and even calling critics "stupid" - at the end of the day, voters will judge him based on the economy, specifically the cost of living.
"He can brag about his leadership, even self-proclaiming as the Father of the Nation. But he has to remember that unlike in 1998, the year he lost power when then-PM Mahathir sacked him for sodomy and corruption, gone were the days where government-controlled news media kept hoodwinking the people," said the Finance Twitter report.
"Crucially, the strengthening of Ringgit has not improved the cost of living. In August, when it appreciated to below RM4.50 from almost RM4.80 to a dollar, the prime minister boasted the Ringgit was at its strongest level in 14 years as a result of the government’s policies and efforts to develop the country - when it was actually at its best run, not strongest level.
Deservedly or not, Anwar had in September "continued praising his own leadership" - attributing Malaysia’s positive economic growth and the strengthening of the Ringgit not only to political stability but also to his government’s clear and transparent policies.
"In truth, the currency, trading at RM4.12 to the greenback at that time, had appreciated sharply due to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s larger-than-usual half-percentage-point interest rates cut." said the Finance Twitter report.
"However, beginning October, the local currency started plunging till RM4.49, trying to breach the psychological RM4.50 level. Using Anwar’s same logic, can we now say the weakening of the Ringgit is a result of not only political 'instability' but also to the government’s 'vague' and 'ambiguous' policies? In other words, can we blame Anwar's policies for the Ringgit's poor performance?" asked the report.
"What’s the point of all the chest-thumping and gloating if essential items remain stubbornly expensive and increasing every year, while the real purchasing power of the Malaysian people continues to erode? People are interested to know what steps the government will take to alleviate the burden on ordinary citizens, not crowing about nominal currency gains," the report dryly pointed out.
Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow Malaysia
https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/
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