KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - Even as Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim blared out a rosy picture of political stability, the component parties in his unity government are already drawing battle lines for seats in the next election.
"Anwar has already indicated he wants to go the full term rather than dissolve Parliament earlier. So it's too soon to call with the 16th general election due only by 2027," a political analyst told PoliticsNow Malaysia.
"The current unity government certainly has stabilized because Anwar has been able to keep the Najib and Zahid factions satisfied. That's all Anwar needs to do for now - just hold Umno tight and keep his government intact until GE16."
"Obviously the seats distribution will become the overriding factor then. Chances are Anwar's unity government will then break apart and contest on their own as PH, Umno-BN, GPS and GRS. Depending on the results, they may come together again to form another unity government post GE16 but for now the question mark is definitely still there because Umno-BN, no matter what they say now, might still opt to align with the opposition parties Pas and Bersatu to form their own government instead," added the analyst.
KEEPING THE NAJIBS AND ZAHIDS HAPPY
Over the weekend, after putting behind him swirling rumors that his government would allow disgraced ex-premier Najib Razak to be released into house detention instead of having to serve a reduced six-year jail sentence in jail, Anwar had insisted that since he swept into power Malaysia was considered as one of the most politically stable countries in the region.
The 77-year-old Anwar called for the continuation of the controversial political co-operation between his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition and the Umno-BN, which when it was formed in the aftermath of the 2022 election was given little chance of surviving or prospering for more than a few months.
"We found consensus in the Cabinet, I think it is appropriate for us to find a way to continue the cooperation between PH and BN," Anwar had said.
Najib, despite being the first Malaysian PM to ever be found guilty of corruption, still wield enormous clout in Umno and his supporters have warned Anwar that his release from jail and still ongoing corruption charges are paramount for their backing.
Zahid Hamidi, the current Umno president and also the Deputy Prime Minister, is close to both Anwar and Najib but needs the Najib faction to hang onto power in Umno, which in turn Anwar needs to hang onto if he is to stay on as PM.
So far Anwar's government has paved the way for Zahid to be freed from 47 corruption charges although the courts had already called for the Umno president's defence. As for Najib, his original 12-year jail sentence was halved by the previous King in a move seen as green-lighted by Anwar and house detention now looks likely to be the next concession with the government getting ready to table a controversial, new House Arrest law.
BATTLE FOR OWN SURVIVAL
Yet it is clear that parties within Anwar's PH coalition, which comprises his own PKR party, the DAP, Amanah and Upko, won't be willing to roll over and let Anwar negotiate his own sweet deals with Umno-BN for the sake of staying on as PM.
On Monday, Dzulkefly Ahmad the deputy chairman of Amanah, fired the first salvo. Dzulkefly, who is also the Health Minister, warned that his party will fight for seats in the Johor state assembly, be it at the next general or state election.
“We have identified key state seats that align with our objectives," said Dzulkefly in statement, adding that Amanah aims to field candidates for a minimum of 12 to 20 seats out of the 56 available in the Johor state assembly - with or without an alliance with Umno-BN or even his own Pakatan Harapan coalition.
Johor is a key swing state in the Malaysian power game. It is also where Umno was formed decades ago and is still its political fortress. Hence the fiery response from the Johor Umno Youth wing.
"This stance is by no means binding and is, in fact, contrary to the spirit of unity and is very insincere in intention,” said Noor Azleen Ambros, the state youth chief.
NO MERGERS IN SIGHT
If an hour is a long time in the world of politics, what more another two-and-half years - which is roughly when Anwar needs to dissolve Parliament.
The sabre-rattling, name calling will only intensify and there will be countless complots and conspiracies - real as well as false flags - as all the parties within Anwar's current unity government begin the battle for their own survival.
No mergers amongst them are foreseen by pundits, with the most speculated one between Anwar's PKR and Umno almost totally off the cards.
"Even Anwar's own PKR party won't play dumb-dumb to Umno-BN just to make him happy. In fact Anwar himself will most probably have to lead the charge. A merger between Umno and PKR is now nowhere in sight because neither wants it. And Anwar is a savvy enough politician to know that to survive, his PKR party must win as many seats as possible or his own position will be threatened by the warlords in Umno," said the analyst.
Written by Stan Lee, PoliticsNow Malaysia
https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/
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