Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow Malaysia
KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - A draconian gag order initiated by embattled Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's government might end up doing the exact opposite of what it was meant to do - shed more light on the key players behind former premier Najib Razak's controversial addendum, instead of hiding them behind a wall of silence.
The addendum or add-on instruction to allow the jailed Najib to spend his remaining sentence in home arrest was issued by the previous King, Sultan Abdullah and dated January 29, 2024 - the same day that the same King chaired a Pardons Board meeting to commute Najib's 12-year jail sentence for corruption to just six years and reduce a RM210 million fine to RM50 million.
Why was the addendum detached from the main agenda of the Pardons Board meeting; why did the Palace send it to the Attorney-General instead of directly to the Pardons Board; why did not the AG alert both the Pardons Board and the King the addendum was with him and swiftly send it over to them for deliberation alongside the rest of the agenda; why did the AG instead choose to 'keep' it until the new King, Sultan Ibrahim was installed under Malaysia's rotating monarchy system on 31 January 2024 - perhaps these are among the main questions that the Anwar regime is trying to quell with the gag order.
So far, civil society, activists, media groups and political rivals have lashed out at the gag order, mocking Anwar and his Pakatan Harapan coalition for going against their promises of reforms to voters for greater transparency and social justice.
However, it's the silence from Umno, the ally party in Anwar's unity government most crucial to his survival as PM, that has been absolutely deafening.
"Who does the AG represent?" wrote former law minister Zaid Ibrahim in a posting on X.
"Now we know that the Attorney General has filed a gag order application. Who is his client? Azalina (Othman, the current law minister) was reported to have said 'No' to the gag order. Obviously, she has no voice in the government. Totally disregarded by the AG," Zaid continued.
"What’s Umno's position? The weak and pliant stance was probably disregarded as well by the AG. What’s the position of the DAP (the cornerstone party in Anwar's coalition)? This party is known for defending the rule of law and freedom but is now absolutely mute. To DAP Anwar is 'my everything'."
"Under the Westminster system of government, an AG represents the executive arm of the government of the day and acts as an advisor to it. Although appointed by the PM, his duty is to the Cabinet. When this AG filed for the gag order, did he take instructions from the Cabinet? Or did he follow what the PM just told him? The latter probably." Zaid added.
NOT FOR LOVE OF NAJIB BUT TO ATTACK ZAHID
Once an invincible political behemoth, Umno has been split by infighting but is fast rebounding after crashing to its worst-ever defeat in the 2022 election. However it was enough to give its opportunistic president Zahid Hamidi the excuse to throw its meagre but crucial 30 seats behind Pakatan's 82 to eke out the slimmest majority in Malaysia's 222-seat government and paving the way for Anwar to become the country's 10th prime minister.
The power-brokers in Umno can be broadly categorized into three groups - the Zahid faction, the Najib faction which includes his family members and the third made up of the 'warlords' that oppose both Zahid and Najib. This third group is believed to include senior politicians including former premier Ismail Sabri, former senior minister Hishammuddin Hussein as well as former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh.
"So far it is the supporters of the third group that have spoken out against the gag order. Not because they love Najib but they see it as an opportunity to attack Zahid and use his unpopular decision to ally Umno to Pakatan against him." an analyst told PoliticsNow Malaysia.
"Also, only Razaleigh has come out to demand Anwar steps down and for Umno to leave the unity government but Ismail Sabri and Hishammuddin have been more cautious. Maybe these two men understand that it's actually a double-edged sword because it strengthens Najib's hand in making sure Anwar secures for him a second and full royal pardon, not just home detention."
NO WALKOUT OR COUP - KU LI TOO WEAK, HISHAM & ISMAIL TOO CHICKEN?
As such, a walkout by Umno MPs within the third groups is unlikely, added the analyst. A coup too was unlikely but a power transition may however still be inevitable - and the man to gain everything would be Najib himself.
"Why would Najib and Zahid factions upset their own applecart? Everything is already going according to plan. The more confusion and the more despicably the Anwar regime behaves, the greater the sympathy from Malay voters for Umno. It almost guarantees a second and full royal pardon for Najib and once this happens, Najib is bound to lead the country again as the 11th PM," said the analyst.
"The only losers in Umno are in the third group. Razaleigh, Hisham and Ismail can kiss their dream of becoming PM goodbye once Najib secures a full pardon," the analyst added.
In the aftermath of the 2022 general election which failed to yield a clear winner, Anwar was accused of striking a secret deal with Zahid and Najib - promising them freedom from their corruption cases in exchange for their support to become PM. So far, the Anwar administration has withdrawn all corruption charges against Zahid, secured a partial pardon for Najib with home arrest and a full royal pardon a works-in-progress that is likely to be achieved sooner rather than later.
IMPECCABLE TIMING, FULL PARDON & NOT HOME ARREST ON NAJIB'S RADAR
Agree or not, what is clear is that Najib's fight for home detention has been overly aggressive given that he is almost certain to be released on parole by August 2026. Hence, the speculation that what he is really fighting for is a full pardon as only this could allow him to contest in the country's 16th general election and win a seat - which is critical if he is to become PM again. Home arrest would still see him barred from standing in elections for another five years. Malaysia's Parliament has to be dissolved by the end on 2027 and elections held within two months after dissolution.
Accused of stealing billions of dollars from the 1MDB corruption debacle, Najib is believed to have stashed massive amounts of cash overseas. If true, the vast resources will give him an unassailable hand as puppet-master in Malaysia's often shady political landscape. So far, it looks like he has picked his timing impeccably.
In GE16, many expect Umno to win as many as 50 to 60 seats - which would make it the party with the most seats and ensure that the PM's post goes to it. Ironically, it was Najib's 1MDB corruption debacle that cost the once-mighty Umno its six decades-long political hegemony in 2018. Najib was not only toppled as PM but also forced to resign as Umno's president after the Pakatan, then led by the legendary Mahathir Mohamad, took over the government.
MALAYS LOOKING FOR AN ALTERNATIVE TO PAS
Led by another corruption-tainted leader Zahid Hamidi, Umno continued to fall amid Najib's corruption court trials - but the bottom seems to have been hit. Last year, it unexpectedly won two stunning by-election victories - leading many experts to predict it was now set to rise from the ashes.
Even the Muslim-centric Pas party, the most influential Malay-based political party in the country now, seems to believe this. Pas has been cozying up to Umno and openly supporting 'forgiveness' for Najib despite being in the opposition and the obvious coolness shown to Najib and Umno by its main ally Bersatu in their PN opposition bloc.
"Malays are looking for an alternative to Pas. In the rural east coat, it has already almost every vote it can get and now controls four states. But urban Malays in the west coast think it places too high priority on religion and don't believe it can govern and lead Malaysia along a path of progress and modernity," said the analyst.
"As for Bersatu, its president Muhyiddin Yassin was given the chance and proved to be a disappointing PM. Bersatu's No.2 man Hamzah Zainuddin is seen as even more lacking in vision. So that leaves only Umno but not with Zahid whom many Malays dislike and think is too corruption-tainted to be PM. Surprisingly they seem willing to forgive Najib although the corruption in 1MDB is the worst the world has ever seen."
"Somehow, many Malays believe that with Najib back in charge, so long as he doesn't steal too much again, Malaysia will progress in the way that they want and can still be a part of the modern world, and not be left behind like with Pas.
"As for Anwar, he has been distrusted by Malays for decades and is seen as an impostor, a Mr Unpredictable and his PM-ship a flash in the pan. They think he is already lucky to get to be PM once - they aren't likely to give him more than a term. As for the non-Malays, the joke's on them for believing in Anwar and Pakatan all these decades. He and DAP have been the biggest disappointments and betrayers of their loyalty. It will be hard to convince them ever again that Anwar's reformasi is real and not actually just reform-mati (dead reforms) and sloganeering."
Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow Malaysia
https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/
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