BOMBSHELL - TRAPPED! DOUBLE JEOPARDY ALREADY AT ANWAR'S DOOR - IF PMX LOSES PELANGAI, CAN HE WIN SUPPORT FOR BUDGET 2024 - OR WILL A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE BE TRIGGERED?

KUALA LUMPUR (Politics Now!) - Jump, says Zahid. How high, asks Anwar! It looks like Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim may have to follow that script if his unity government is to win at the Pelangai by-election.

Although a state seat and the outcome of the October 7 ballot will not change the power equation at either the state or federal government level, a loss will signal to the anti-Anwar warlords in Umno that it's time to dump him and their own president Zahid Hamidi.

BY-ELECTION LOSS, NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE - 'HABIS LA! ANWAR'

How will they do this? Either by making a beeline into the opposition PN-PAS coalition, in which case the group of Umno MPs believed to be led by Hishammuddin Hussein will need to resign their federal seats first, OR either vote against the Budget 2024 that is due to be presented by Anwar  on October 13 or engineer a situation including absenteeism that will ensure the spending plan is not approved.

"The Budget is the biggest opportunity for the opposition to topple Anwar. If it is not approved, a vote of confidence against Anwar will be tabled and since he and his inner circle have upset so many people, some of them really powerful players, the chances are there he will lose it," a pundit told Politics Now!

FRENZIED SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

The long-time observer of Malaysia's often overheated political landscape also said such a no-confidence vote would be unprecedented and could trigger unimaginable ramifications that can go against Anwar and his Pakatan Harapan coalition.

"If I were Anwar, I would do everything I can to avoid it because even if the confidence vote doesn't kill me, it will be the proverbial beginning of the end for me!" said the pundit.

Already on the defensive, a frenzied Anwar is pulling out all the stops in Pelangai where he has promised a 'surprise' for the people of Pahang with the teaser that "the condition is to win the Pelangai by-election"

"InsyaAllah, we will announce something important not only for Malaysia but for Pahang in particular," the Star reported Anwar as saying. “I did not want to tell Pahang Mentri Besar Wan Rosdy because I want it to remain a surprise.”

BUT EVEN WITH MASSIVE ELECTION GOODIES, ANWAR MAY STILL LOSE

According to the Star, the announcement is due to be made ahead of Anwar's official visit to UAE on Oct 5.

But Anwar's 'bombshell' may not win him Pelangai. For sure, it will be slammed by election watchdogs, who criticized him for throwing lavish 'goodies' to win votes during the Johor twin by-elections and the recent 'six state' elections. 

Yet despite pumping in millions and going all out, Anwar failed to make headway with Malay voters, instead losing more Malay support to PN-PAS even though his unity government managed to scrape through wins thanks to non-Malay support.

CABINET RESHUFFLE FAVORABLE TO ZAHID & UMNO NEEDED

Anwar is also expected to announce a Cabinet reshuffle also ahead of the Pelangai by-election, perhaps when he returns from UAE on Friday or on the Oct 7 balloting day itself.

"It’s well within his rights to do this because a by-election has no bearing on a Cabinet reshuffle. But like all changes, not everyone will be pleased, and it could, in fact, be turned into a point of contention by the Opposition, should there be reason," wrote a report in the BN-linked Star newspaper on Sunday..

"So, as Zahid (the DPM and Umno president) has said, the reshuffle will be very soon, and it can’t be done when Parliament is in session or at the end of the year."

HELLO ZAHID! - AND MAYBE JOHARI GHANI & SARAVANAN TOO

Except for Zahid taking over the Home Ministry and Umno's Johari Ghani possibly recruited into the Finance Ministry or Federal Territories Ministry, the guessing game over the Cabinet reshuffle has been fairly muted.

Few believe Selangor MB Amirudin Shari will be transferred to the federal Cabinet. 

News that DAP's Hannah Yeoh will be removed as Sports and Youth Minister sparked the most interest due to her popularity and the public perception it's not her fault Malaysia could not win that many medals in the Hangzhou Asian Games. 

But it is true, Hannah while among the most hardworking and intelligent in Anwar's overall lame Cabinet, has not been able to make much headway in getting youths especially Malay youths from the rural areas to support Anwar's unity government.

NOT NOW, AMIRUDIN - AND BYE-BYE HANNAH

On the other hand, MIC's M. Saravanan may be making a return to the Cabinet, according to news portal Free Malaysia Today. A controversial leader with a scandal-tainted past and unpopular in many quarters, Saravanan would be a 'ruthless' choice by Anwar, made with the sole aim to bolster his flagging support among the Indian community. 

And despite the sanguine disbelief among Anwar's die-hard supporters and within the Pakatan Harapan circles that Anwar would 'never' let Zahid replace his most trusted lieutenant Saifuddin Nasution as Home Minister, the word from the pundits is to "never say never".

The odds are more than even that Zahid will get back his 'golden goose' - now that he has secured his controversial discharge from corruption charges linked to the time when he was Home Minister in the Najib administration.

"The writing on the wall is there for all to see. Anwar is really much weaker than people realize, while Zahid is a really astute politician," the pundit told Politics Now!

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