KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - The Umno cavalry has begun moving, beginning in Sabah, and is likely to end in the peninsula where either its president Zahid Hamidi or deputy president Mohamad Hassan can be expected to replace the embattled Anwar Ibrahim as the next prime minister of the federal government.
Hot on the heels of a fiery demand by Umno's youth chief Akmal Salleh for the corruption-tainted Hajiji Noor to step down as Sabah chief minister was a proposal from the party's state chapter for Hajiji to be replaced by Jeffrey Kitingan.
The 76-year-old Jeffrey is not an Umno member but president of his own Star party which won one seat in the federal Parliament during the 2022 general election and six state assembly seats at the 2020 Sabah election.
"Jeffrey is something like a potential compromise candidate. Because of his strong native grassroots, he's good to have on your side but currently Star is part of Hajiji's GRS ruling coalition," an analyst told PoliticsNow Malaysia.
"That's why Jeffrey has to rush to accuse Umno of trying to poke fire but Umno could also be trying to send a signal via Jeffrey to the other Kadazandusun-based parties in GRS that it will be inclusive and the chief minister's post can be negotiated. What Jeffrey outwardly says and what he and the leaders of the other GRS parties will actually do behind the scenes are two different things. You can't blame them as how are they going to win votes if Hajiji's corruption scandal sticks on them," the analyst added.
DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD FOR ANWAR
The analyst was referring to a corruption scandal that erupted into the open some weeks ago, where a group of Hajiji's assemblymen were caught on video discussing what appeared to be the distribution of bribes amongst themselves. Hajiji, who was also implicated in the tapes, has repeatedly denied wrongdoing, while his assemblymen accused rivals of using deep fakes and AI to fabricate the incriminating video footage.
Despite the whistleblower making an open appeal to Anwar as well as writing to the King for action and protection, so far nothing much has been done. The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission has been furtive about the progress of its probes as well as the reports it has received on the matter.
Anwar, whose Pakatan Harapan coalition supports Hajiji's GRS in Sabah, is seen as trying to protect Hajiji by drawing the curtains and delaying on the myriad calls for a full public investigation.
"Obviously, it is not to Anwar's advantage if Sabah Umno gets the upperhand. Any advantage Umno scores in Sabah will translate into more bargaining power for Umno in KL. I am sure Anwar can see the writing on the wall and he might be concerned about his own replacement by either Zahid or Mohamad Hassan. I think he will do as little as he can and let the Sabah parties fight it out on their own but that itself is a double-edged sword that can fall on him in Putrajaya," said the analyst, referring to mounting public unhappiness that Anwar was back-pedaling on promised reforms and anti-corruption stance.
'COWBOY TOWN' NO MORE, IT'S 'SABAH FIRST' NOW
Indeed, almost anything and everything goes in Sabah's realpolitik, where small money has frequently been used to milk votes and big money for its leaders. But with younger and better-educated voters coming on stream and the explosion of 'Sabah-first' sentiment across the state, political parties there have had to buck up or perish.
Sabah Umno, which had controlled the state government for some two decades before being toppled in 2018 by the Warisan or Heritage party led by Shafie Apdal, is no exception. However, while Sabah Umno members are locals, it is still seen as being controlled by its outsider parent party which is headquartered in 'Malaya', the term frequently used by East Malaysians when referencing West Malaysia.
Nonetheless, whichever way the cookie eventually crumbles will depend on the outcome of the Sabah state polls, which Hajiji must call by the end of 2025. A major realignment in the power equation is expected, with the Malay-predominant Sabah Umno, the Bajau-based Warisan and the Kadazandusun-centric parties such as Star and PBS, which holds seven state seats, seen burying the hatchet and giving Hajiji the boot when the time comes.
But when will that be?
"I am not sure if the bribery scandal will make Hajiji push the state election nearer or if he will drag until the very end. Unless the pressure is very great from his ally parties in GRS, I think he would prefer to hold onto power for as long as he can," the analyst said.
"The problem for his allies is the bribery scandal might taint the whole coalition and going into the election, that could hurt their results. So if the ally parties see greater opportunity for themselves, they might shake him earlier than later. The thing is, how ready are all the parties to face the state election if Hajiji were to immediately dissolve the state assembly. It would surely be quite chaotic but then Sabahans are used to volatile politics." added the analyst.
There are a total of 79 seats in the Sabah legislative assembly, of which 73 are due to be contested and six which are through appointments. Sabah Umno currently holds 13 and Warisan 14.
Hajiji's own party Gagasan holds 26 seats, most of which were through defections from the by-now almost-defunct Bersatu, following a political crisis that swept Hajiji to power in 2020 and deposing Shafie.
The GRS, which is made up of eight parties, controls 42 of the state assembly seats, while Anwar's Pakatan Harapan - which consists of PKR, DAP, Amanah and Upko parties - holds seven seats. The KDM party, led by former Warisan leader Peter Anthony, holds two state seats and the Muslim-centric Pas party, headquartered in West Malaysia, holds the remaining one.
Sabah has a population of almost 3.5 million, composed of various ethnic groups. The Kadazan Dusuon is the largest, forming 19.3% of the population, the Bajau the next at 16.5%, the Malays at 9%, the Chinese 7.3%, the Murut 3.1%, other 'Bumiputera' 19.7%, other 'non-Bumiputera' 1.2% and the Indians 0.2%. Non-Malaysians form a hefty 23.7% of the population although they are not entitled to vote.
Written by Stan Lee, PoliticsNow Malaysia
https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/
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