Next PM to come from Umno? Zahid now Pakatan's 'bogeyman' with Anwar's PKR seen winning only 10% of its seats, DAP 80%

Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow Malaysia 

KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - Desperate, back to the wall, headless chicken and whatnot cannot begin to describe the awful panic that must be swamping loyalists of embattled Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim - so much so that his deputy, Zahid Hamidi who is also the Umno president has been turned into a bogeyman to scare disenchanted supporters, especially among the non-Malay minorities, into keeping Anwar as PM[.

"In the past, it was if not Anwar then who else can be the Pakatan's PM candidate," an analyst told PoliticsNow Malaysia.

"Now that it's clear Umno's rise and PKR's demise can no longer be fudged, the new tactic seems to be - if you don't support Anwar, then you are indirectly supporting Zahid who is as good as certain to be the next PM if Anwar's PKR party fails to win more seats as Umno," explained the analyst.

A podcast aired by an academic Professor Tajuddin Rasdi of the School of Architecture and Built Environment in the local UCSI University that presented "Three reasons why ZAHID HAMIDI may become the next PRIME MINISTER after GE16!!" had sparked heated debate among netizens - some of whom agreed although many also disagreed with the don.

UMNO TO CALL THE SHOTS, ANWAR'S PKR MAY LOSE LOSE 90% OF ITS SEATS

Although Tajuddin doesn't say so, it is fairly apparent from the rather histrionic capitalizations in his podcast's title that he doesn't think Zahid is the right leader to be PM and again although unstated, it appears Tajuddin thinks the post should stay with Anwar if there is to be benefit to Malaysia.

Based on his estimates which he reveals in the last leg of his podcast, he expects Umno to win at least 50 seats in the 16th general election due to be held latest by 2027 - a marked improvement compared to the 30 it salvaged in the 2022 election. By comparison, he believes - as do most estimates that are now coming out - the DAP will at best be able to retain only 80% of its 40 seats, while Anwar's PKR party and Amanah may be left with only 10% of their previous haul.

"I think Umno will stay with Pakatan Harapan until after GE16 when they have to come to an agreement as to who shall be in power," said Tajuddin, adding that it is likely Zahid will to decide keep Umno aligned to Pakatan as Pas and Bersatu are seen as anti-Zahid due to his corruption-tainted record," said Tajuddin.

"But because Umno will win 50 to 60 seats... the prime minister-ship must go to Umno and that would mean Zahid Hamidi. If there is non-agreement by Pakatan for Zahid to be PM, then Zahid will offer Umno to be in coalition with Pas and Bersatu," Tajuddin added.

Odd or not, the professor seemed fixated on Zahid as staying the course as Umno president, offering no room to the possibility that the popular Mohamad Hassan, Umno's deputy president, might beat Zahid in the party's 2026 polls and be the one who will lead Umno into the 2027 general elections.

Also, the numbers Tajuddin estimated are not really a surprise anymore. Stunning survey results that disfavor Anwar and his PKR party are no longer brushed off by researchers and the academia, many of whom were appointed to professorships by the Anwar administration. Their admission of the fate possibly facing Anwar and Pakatan shows there is little room left for propagandists to twist the numbers - with only blame game and other 'spin' left as options.

IT'S NOT ANWAR'S FAULT, BLAME CIVIL SOCIETY, MARIAM MOKHTAR, BERSIH & THE CHINESE THEMSELVES?

However, what Tajuddin seemed most concerned about was who would be to blame should Umno and Zahid come to power and this, according to critics of his viral podcast, is indeed more revealing.

According to the professor, those at fault are Malaysia's civil society, who have been mostly critical of Anwar. In particular, he zoomed in on well-known writer Mariam Mokhtar as well elections watchdog Bersih. Secondly he attributed Umno's comeback to the 'Akmal Salleh' factor, where the Umno youth chief's calculated anti-non-Malay outbursts have been credited for swinging Malay support back to Umno. Thirdly, Tajuddin blamed the Malaysian Chinese for wanting the DAP to be even more radical than Akmal, warning the community that should they cast protest votes against DAP and Anwar, then only Umno and Zahid benefits.

"To gun after civil society paying special attention to Mariam Mokhtar and Bersih for giving Anwar a 'D' grade is the giveaway." a veteran political watcher told PoliticsNow Malaysia.. 

"I think Tajuddin specifically mentioned their names something like 12 times in his podcast, suggesting and inferring they didn't know what they were talking about and that real-life politics is a long-term game that only politicians know how to play. But how does he know Anwar knows how to play the game? Has Anwar been PM before?" asked the pundit.

The pundit also found it "funny" because Tajuddin didn't specify exactly what would constitute 'real-life' politics or for how long must a 'long-term' game be played. 

"Umno ruled for 60 years and they ruined Malaysia until they were kicked out even by the Malays. Is Tajuddin saying to give Anwar and Pakatan 60 years too? Can they or we live that long? Tajuddin should ask himself, who should be the ones to adapt to whom. If Anwar is too slow and Pakatan not sharp enough, why should not the people change them fast and the same goes for the next batch of successors until the right talent is finally flushed up. Why should Malaysians keep giving a party or leader unspecified time to effect desperately-needed change based on hazy and grand-sounding presumptions but no specific details," said the pundit.  

Indeed, many have accused the Anwar administration of taking the country back to the Najib Razak days, when views from a so-called 'professor kangkung' group as well as the authority of the police, the MCMC and MACC were used to crack down on critics and to justify misgovernance in the bid to cling to power. 

"What is very intriguing is when Tajuddin  criticizes Mariam and Bersih but then declares himself as an 'academic' and as such, unlike them, he knows when he doesn't know. Now that's a great statement because a fool is defined as some who doesn't know and doesn't know he doesn't know," the pundit continued.

"So it's sad to see Tajuddin later on in the tape talking about the Malaysian Chinese casting protest votes over Akmal because this indicates he doesn't know the Malaysian Chinese mentality so well after all. In other words, he doesn't know that he doesn't know them. Now I am a Malaysian Chinese and I can already tell that DAP will lose seats and that the Chinese will also boycott Anwar and PKR even more. But it's not because DAP didn't 'out-Akmal' Akmal. Who is Akmal but just another racist type Umno leader to them? Fairly and squarely, it is because Anwar failed to keep election promises that is chasing them away. After twenty years of supporting him when his opportunity finally comes, it turns out Anwar is actually scared of reforms. It's a joke. Worse still, they don't see him doing anything for the economy or for education. These are the two considerations more important for Chinese and Indian voters, not silly, boorish utterances from Umno, Pas or Bersatu leaders," concluded the pundit.

Indeed, even Malay activists such as human rights lawyer Siti Kassim have rebuked Tajuddin over the Mariam and Bersih bashing, calling for greater professionalism and for academics to rise above pettiness lest they be seen as 'hiring out' their qualification to help the corridors of power snuff out the competition.

WAITING 60 YEARS TO BRING DOWN UMNO - YET ANWAR WANTS MORE TIME?

The Pakatan Harapan coalition consists of Anwar's PKR party, the non-Malay-dominated DAP, Amanah which is an offshoot of the opposition giant Pas party as well as Upko, an East Malaysian party.

Since the early 2000s, the Pakatan has been in the opposition, struggling to bring down Umno's six-decade-long hegemonic rule and dominance over the country. Even the Muslim-centric Pas joined  Pakatan to help overthrow Umno, leaving only in 2015 after a fallout over who should be the coalition's PM candidate - the sodomy scandal-tainted Anwar or it's own president Hadi Awang?

Pakatan's strategy was simple. As a multiracial coalition, it took the moral high ground espousing among others: equality of rights before the law, social justice, poverty alleviation, freedom of speech, greater democratic rights, free and fair elections, and an anti-corruption stance. It wasn't too long before the non-Malays poured all their hopes and dreams of no longer having to be 'second-class' citizens to the Malays into Anwar and Pakatan. Its impact was felt in 2008, when it took control of four state governments including Malaysia's richest state Selangor, Penang, Kedah and Kelantan.

But it wasn't until 2018 when it was led by Mahathir Mohamad that Pakatan finally broke Umno's hegemony and wrested the federal government. Mahathir, now 99, had been Umno's most iron-fisted president and the prime minister who held sway for 22 years from 1981 to 2003. He was the target of a lot of Pakatan's politicking of what ailed Malaysia most - from his personal oppressive and tyrannical rule to institutionalizing racism and embedding corruption in the civil service and government. 

Yet to bring down Najib Razak, the disgraced ex-premier whose 1MDB corruption scandal was so massive its money trails spanned several countries, Mahathir bailed out of his own Umno party. Pakatan, at that time 'leaderless' with Anwar still in jail for his second sodomy conviction, too agreed to rally behind Mahathir and his then newly-formed Bersatu party. Together, and boosted by shows of support from political elders including the late finance minister Daim Zainuddin and long-time senior minister Rafidah Aziz, they lit a fire of fervor for change that blazed across the country, which till then had never known any government other than Umno since 1957. Together, their solidarity managed to convince the Malays, the largest electorate, into giving Pakatan a chance to govern the country.  

Unfortunately, the 'my way or the highway' Mahathir soon bailed out of Pakatan too. In 2020, the grand old man effectively handed the federal government over to the PN coalition by resigning as PM and insisting his Cabinet also resigned. This paved the way for another ex-Umno stalwart Muhyiddin Yassin to cobble together a 'Malay unity government', consisting of the Bersatu party, Pas, Umno and several East Malaysian parties including Sarawak's GPS coalition.

ZAHID GOES FROM ANWAR'S  'KEY SAVIOR' TO 'GRIM REAPER'?

Fast forward to the 2022 general election - Anwar, who had by then received a royal pardon for his sodomy offence, finally managed to form the current unity government under a deal brokered by the then King. His Pakatan coalition won only 82 of Parliament's 222 seats, beating Muhyiddin's PN alliance which consisting of Bersatu and Pas, could only win 74. Umno, which had contested on its own, won 30 - the lowest number ever in its history due to lingering Malay anger and protest votes against Najib and Zahid's own corruption debacles.

It was then that Zahid, who had previously promised his party to never co-operate with Anwar or the DAP, pulled a mother of U-turns. Speculation immediately swirled he had struck a secret deal with Anwar to free himself from 47 corruption charges when he decided to throw Umno's 30 seats behind Anwar. This helped Anwar to clinch the minimum 112 seats needed to form the federal government. That wafer-thin majority has since expanded, again thanks to the King's persuasion, as East Malaysian coalitions including the GPS and Sabah's GRS came on board.

Nonetheless, it was Zahid who was seen as Anwar's political savior and the man instrumental for helping him to finally achieve the topmost post he had always coveted. As such, it came as no surprise to cynics when a year later, Zahid was controversially discharged from his corruption trial after Anwar's prosecutors withdrew their case. 

However, public disdain for Zahid has not reduced while for Anwar, it has risen. Anwar's popularity rating has sunk to 50% from 68% previously, while surveys and report cards such as the Bersih's have given him a Grade D for lack of performance and failure to keep promises.

TERRIFYING SIGNS FOR TEAM ANWAR

It did not go unnoticed that after Umno convincingly won two recent by-elections at Mahkota in Johor and Nenggiri in Kelantan, that Anwar's political secretary Shamsul Iskandar revealed, out of the blue, that if Anwar had not ordered him not to ask for a recount, Zahid could have lost the Bagan Datuk seat that Zahid and Shamsul were both contesting for during the 2022 election. If the recount had gone Shamsul's way, Zahid would have ended up without a seat in Parliament, which would not only make access to the top rungs of power tough but also endanger his position as Umno president. 

"That was the first sign of cracks in the Anwar-Zahid relationship," the analyst had also told PoliticsNow Malaysia, referring to the Shamsul exposure.

"Recently, Zahid has also used words like 'change of government' in his public comments and he has been going on about how the opposition has offered Umno the PM's post in exchange for ditching Anwar and giving them four Cabinet posts. These are very serious signals," the analyst continued.

But the one sign that terrified the Anwar camp the most is likely to be Zahid's lifting of a suspension on a former Umno MP, whom he had suspended as part of a purge to weed out his critics in Umno. 

Indeed, it does look like Zahid is trying to make Umno great again and to do this, he is offering the olive branch to those he froze or sacked. His tough actions and personal unpopularity have divided not only Umno but also the Malay community. Yet if party 'warlords' like ex-premier Ismail Sabri and ex-senior minister Hishammuddin Hussein were no longer sidelined - or if those sacked like Khairy Jamaluddin and those who have since joined other parties like Shahidan Kassim and Annuar Musa reapplied to come back - then pundits predict that a "sense of elation" will return and unite the still fragmented Umno.

PLAYED OUT BY 'BOGEYMAN' ZAHID, DRAGGED DOWN BY LITTLE NAPOLEONS

Better still for Umno, the pundits say, if Zahid were to give way to his popular No. 2 Mohamad Hassan to take over as the new Umno president. 

"If that happened, Umno will be top dog again that's for sure. Mohamad is very popular. He is seen as clean, hardworking and competent. Even the non-Malays like him and won't mind him being the Umno PM," opined the analyst.

"After all with Anwar, not only nothing is happening but he is going in the opposite direction to the reforms that he had promised. The iron-fist is tightening instead of reforms taking place. His communications minister Fahmi Fadzil, the MCMC, the police and the MACC are seen to be getting more despised by the public for allegedly behaving like political tools instead of doing their jobs professionally, fairly and with transparency. In fact, all the hard reforms that have expanded democratic rights over the recent years (like repealing the Internal Security Act and the peaceful assembly laws) were actually pushed through by Umno's Najib and not by Anwar. Ironical, isn't it?" the analyst added.

Perhaps, that's why the focus on making Zahid the bogeyman, while conveniently turning the spotlight away from Mohamad Hassan. Zahid may not give Mohamad Hassan a free pass but Umno party election will be held in 2026 and already bets are on Mohamad Hassan will beat him for the presidency.

And based on Zahid's record of being one of Umno's most cunning political operators - masterminding not only Anwar's rise and then demise as PM but also Umno's return to being the top Malay party in the country - he can be expected to be already manipulating behind the scenes, perhaps even sharing with Mohamad Hassan the almost limitless possibilities before them and their party once they say goodbye and good riddance to Anwar and his inner circle, whose advice and strategy have dragged him down.

Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow Malaysia

https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/