Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow Malaysia
KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - The shadow play behind the bid by international trade minister Tengku Zafrul to dump his Umno party for the less promising pastures of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's PKR party is growing rather than dissipating, despite having erupted into the public domain.
According to political watchers, the main reason is because no one could still quite figure out why the ambitious and well-qualified Zafrul would want to leave Umno, a party known by almost all the Malays in the country, having controlled the government since 1957 and is now fast rebounding after losing its 60-year hegemony in 2018 due to protest votes against the massive corruption of its leaders.
NOTHING BUT THE BEST 'SANDIWARA' FROM TEAM ANWAR?
Also rather mysterious is why the embattled Anwar would want to test the already tense and sensitive balance of power that is now just barely holding up his unity government.
"There are pressures and shadow plays that we are not seeing," veteran journalist Kadir Jasin posted on Facebook.
Nonetheless, like many other pundits, Kadir too believes Anwar will roll out the red carpet and reward Zafrul with the powerful post of Selangor chief minister. They believe that current chief minister Amirudin Shari will be ousted and asked to vacate his Sungai Tua state assembly seat to pave the way for Zafrul to step up.
And to console Amirudin, who has publicly stated he wants to serve out his full term which expires in 2027, Anwar is expected to appoint him to the federal Cabinet. Apart from his state seat, Amirudin is also the Member of Parliament for the Gombak seat in the federal Parliament.
ZAFRUL'S GAME PLAN - CM FIRST, PM NEXT?
But that's just the bones and the skeleton - what about the meat and the muscles?
So far, Zafrul's motivation for joining Anwar's 'sinking-ship' party has been blamed on his corporate background. Analysts have opined Zafrul might still be too attached to the job-hopping culture prevalent in his past profession, where brief stints at different top shops are acceptable - so long as there's higher pay, greater power and most important of all - access to further upward mobility.
"Put it this way. Selangor chief minister looks good on one's resume. Zafrul will be more in demand even by Umno, should he decide to hop back," an analyst told PoliticsNow Malaysia.
"For all we know, Zafrul's game plan could be to become chief minister for five to 10 years and then it's the PM post he might fight for next. That sort of timeline would seem okay for Anwar because it still gives him enough time to manoeuvre and to outplay Zafrul if the need arises. Who knows Anwar himself might not be PM after the next election, with the current odds that PKR could lose most of its 31 federal seats to Umno and Pas," the analyst added.
ANWAR'S GAME PLAN - FORGET RAFIZI! BUT MAYBE ZAHID & NAJIB?
As for Anwar, who has welcomed his party's preliminary talks with Zafrul, a myriad of reasons have been offered, including by his own as well as rival propagandists. However, most of the suggestions do not really hold water, including that he was trying to please the Selangor Sultan as Zafrul is a distant member of the royal family.
Some even believe Anwar was up to his 'divide and conquer' ways in PKR - roping in Zafrul to contain the rise of his party's deputy president Rafizi Ramli, who is also his economy minister. However, many analysts doubt this, arguing that Rafizi was in the same leaky boat as Anwar and might even fail to defend his Pandan seat.
Like Anwar and their Pakatan Harapan coalition which consists of PKR, DAP, Amanah and Upko, Rafizi's popularity has nosedived with the Anwar administration seen as reneging on election promises and failing to revive the economy. In particular, Rafizi and Anwar, who is finance minister in addition to being PM and PKR president, have been blamed for being unable to rein in costs of living and food prices. The duo are in the bad books of many in the country for slashing subsidies on a variety of essential items including fuel, diesel and electricity tariffs.
"I don't think so because there is no need to take on so much risk just to quell Rafizi. Just think, what if Zafrul loses Amirudin's Sungai Tua seat? That will be such a huge mess for Anwar . He will not only be a laughing stock especially to Umno but he also faces being rebuked by his own coalition mates for losing a seat for nothing," a Pakatan insider told PoliticsNow Malaysia.
"Frankly, I don't see Anwar taking such a risk for anyone except for Zahid, Najib or his daughter Nurul Izzah. But Nurul has lost her oomph and it would be silly to expect Zafrul to agree to be her cheerleader. Even Rafizi didn't and won't. So that leaves Zahid and Najib, Umno's two biggest fish and the only ones with enough clout to help Anwar achieve his goals while he helps them achieve theirs," added the insider.
PROXY MAN, TROJAN HORSE OR RTO?
But Zahid Hamidi, the Umno president and Deputy Prime Minister, has already secured from Anwar's prosecutors a discharge from all 47 of the corruption charges he was on trial for. As for Najib Razak, the disgraced former prime minister has not only won a royal pardon that cut his 12-year jail term for corruption by half - but Anwar has also set in motion moves that could at the very least see Najib released from prison to spend the balance of his sentence at any one of his palatial homes.
The perceived favors were allegedly rammed through as part of a secret deal made by the trio, where Zahid and Najib would steer Umno into supporting Anwar to form a unity government as well as become PM in the aftermath of the 2022 election that failed to dredge up a clear winner. All three men have denied the rumors.
"It's the period from now to the next general election which must be held by 2027 that matters. If Umno wins 50 to 60 seats as many have projected, they don't need to bother with Anwar but they may still be unable to reclaim Selangor," the insider explained..
"Furthermore just as there is talk about Zafrul being helicoptered into PKR to boost the odds on Anwar's side in case there's a power struggle with Rafizi, the same applies to the Umno election in 2026. Zahid might also face a power struggle with his more popular No.2, Mohamad Hasan. Won't having the PM as well as the Selangor CM on his side help Zahid?" said the insider.
Selangor is the country's richest state and most active business hub. Many of Umno's most powerful warlords have bases there and even those who do not can be expected to be happy with Zahid if an Umno-friendly CM is there, favoring their requests for positions or deals and whatnot.
There are 56 seats in the Selangor state legislative assembly - 35 held by Amirudin's government and 21 by the opposition. DAP has the most seats at 15, PKR 12, Amanah 5, Umno-BN 2 and an pro-government independent 1. The opposition holds 21 seats, with Bersatu contributing 11 and Pas 10.
In other words, all the talk about Zafrul being a proxy or Trojan horse to effect a pre-planned, behind-the-scenes political move for Anwar also works for Zahid.
In fact, perhaps due to Zafrul's investment banking background, a decades-old rumor of an RTO or reverse-takeover by Umno of PKR's Malay MPs, assemblymen or even control of the Selangor state government has resurfaced.
SUNGAI TUA MOVE?
Despite being a multiracial party, PKR's roots can be traced to Umno, where Anwar was the deputy president before being sacked in 1998 by legendary two-time premier Mahathir Mohamad. PKR or the National Justice Party was formed in1999 by Anwar's wife Wan Azizah after he was arrested and jailed for his first sodomy offence. It morphed into the People's Justice Party in 2003 and later formed the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, the precursor of the current Pakatan Harapan coalition.
"Through the years, whenever there was too much pressure on Anwar from the DAP or from the Azmin Ali faction, somehow rumors would come out that Anwar might just walk over to Unno with the MPs and assemblymen loyal to him," recalled the insider.
"And the same goes for Azmin, whenever he felt Anwar was betraying him or giving him too little credit for doing most of the party work, similar rumors would surface. The difference is, Azmin actually did it with the Sheraton Move in 2020," the insider added.
He was referring to former senior minister Azmin Ali, who defected from PKR to Bersatu with 10 MPs via a political manoeuve dubbed the 'Sheraton Move'. It triggered the immediate collapse of the first Pakatan federal government led by Mahathir.
Now 60 years-old, Azmin was Anwar's personal secretary and left Umno to help Azizah found and build up PKR. Azmin is the secretary-general of opposition party Bersatu and according to Pakatan insiders, his feud with Anwar has become too bitter for him to consider returning to PKR.
So will history repeat itself? Will there be a Sungai Tua move? If so, by whom, when and to where?
Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow Malaysia
https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/
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