Suppressing Mat Hasan, rehabilitating Najib? Anwar dragging sordid local politics onto global stage with Thaksin move?

Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - Speculation  is escalating over Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's controversial decision to appoint ex-Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra as his advisor when he assumes the Asean chair next year.

Some believe Thaksin's appointment was to 'tame' detractors when Anwar makes the final push to either secure a full pardon for disgraced ex-premier Najib Razak or at the very least shift him from prison where he's now serving a reduced 6-year jail term into the vastly more comfortable alternative of home detention. After all, if advisor Thaksin, who was also jailed for grand corruption and received a royal pardon, can still function and is acceptable to society - why not Najib?

Yet there are others who believe the shot was aimed at Mohamad Hasan, Malaysia's foreign affairs minister and the Umno deputy president. Umno is of course a crucial ally party in Anwar's unity government, but the capable and popular Mohamad poses a major threat to Anwar's position as prime minister, especially when general elections, due latest by 2027, are held.

"Many in Umno see it as a move to disparage Mohamad and insinuate that he is not up to mark on the international stage. But the joke also going around is that Anwar himself has not made any headway, he has been ignored, snubbed and even Indonesia's president Prabowo Subianto recently cancelled a meeting with him at the last moment. It was a big slap," an insider in Anwar's Pakatan Harapan coalition told PoliticsNow Malaysia.

"Personally, I see it as both. A Machiavellian attempt but clumsy and not well thought-out move to chop Mohamad down to size as well as to use Thaksin's pardon to justify a similar one for Najib in the coming months. Whether Anwar will reap positive gains is doubtful. It is more likely he will incur even greater unpopularity among Umno members, who generally like Mohamad. As for Najib, only those in Umno who support him will salute Anwar. But other voters especially Anwar's own Pakatan Harapan supporters will write Anwar off. They won't trust him anymore."

EVEN HUN SEN MIGHT BE APPOINTED? BUT MAT HASAN PLAYS IT COOL

So far Mohamad has been cool about the move that rather obviously targets him.

“I have received so many WhatsApp messages from people asking me about this. No need to be alarmed. No stories whatsoever. Not like the stories in the past 2, 3 days, I am still in Umno," The Star reported Mohamad as saying.

The Umno No.2 also revealed that Anwar plans to appoint more of his 'friends' to advise him on Asean matters including Cambodia's Hun Sen.

“They are his old friends and still influential. Their role is informal where they can discuss and talk, not so much for advice but for their insights on how Asean can move forward," said Mohamad.

END OF ANWAR'S DREAM FOR 2ND TERM IF MAT HASAN BEATS ZAHID?

The 68-year-old Mohamad is expected to challenge deputy prime minister Zahid Hamidi for the Umno presidency when party elections take place in 2026. He is widely tipped to beat the unpopular and corruption-tainted Zahid, who is Anwar's key ally.

Should Mohamad beat Zahid for the Umno presidency, he is widely expected to be the next prime minister. The once-mighty Umno had plunged to its lowest level in the 2022 general elections, winning only 30 seats in Malaysia's 222-seat Parliament, as Malay voters decided to punish it for its massive corruption, which included Najib's 1MDB money laundering and siphoning debacle. 

However, Umno has since rebounded winning two recent by-elections with convincing majorities and many analysts believe it can win between 50 to 60 seats in the next general election, especially if helmed by the likeable and relatively 'clean' Mohamad Hasan. Anwar's own PKR party has failed to increase its Malay support despite his holding the country's most powerful post and is expected to lose the majority of its 31 seats.

Indeed, the two men Anwar needs most to just survive as PM, let alone jockey for a second term, are actually Zahid and Najib. The trio are believed to have struck a secret deal in the aftermath of 2022 general election that yielded no clear winner. In exchange for Umno's support, which allowed Anwar to form his coalition government and become PM, he is believed to have agreed to free Zahid and Najib from their corruption cases. 

All three men have denied such a collusion. However, Zahid has against all odds managed to get a discharge from all 47 corruption charges levelled against him after Anwar's prosecutors withdrew the case in a move that shocked and horrified the nation. 

As for Najib, Anwar had submitted a pardon application to the previous King, which ended with Najib's 12-year jail term cut by half. The PM has also sought the current King's advice on a mystery 'addendum' allegedly signed by the previous King that may set the stage for Najib to be shifted to house detention at one of his palatial mansions, if not a full pardon itself. 

IT'S VOTERS THAT COUNT, NOT BACKROOM DEALS

Nonetheless, PKR insiders say their boss is still gunning for a second term although he will be 80 years-old by then. However, for that to be viable, Anwar would need to help ensure Zahid beats off Mohamad's challenge. 

A further deal with Zahid and the still influential Najib faction in Umno would also need to be struck, say political watchers. And this could mean more dubious and controversial concessions to appease the Zahid and Najib camps in Umno.

"Politics, like diplomacy, is the art of the possible. So nothing is impossible," said the insider. 

"The biggest problem is that Anwar seems to have forgotten he is PM because of voter support and not due to backroom deals arranged with other bigwigs from other parties. If it is the latter case, why even bother to hold elections. Malaysia won't be a democracy if that keeps happening. If Anwar is not careful, he could end up getting the boot once and for all from fed-up voters," the insider warned.

DRAGGING SORDID LOCAL POLITICS ONTO GLOBAL STAGE

The Thaksin appointment is another red flag that perhaps highlights Anwar's willingness to use all ways and means to stay on as PM, including dragging domestic politics onto the international stage.

"Anwar’s announcement about Thaksin just does not sound right – it may have been premature and, certainly, the setting was improper," wrote an Asean specialist. 

"The Thaksin announcement has caused a ripple regionally, and not in a good way. An Asean diplomat said it is an unprecedented move and there has been a discussion within diplomatic circles. Names of several former Foreign ministers, not from Malaysia, were widely mentioned among diplomats as possibly better advisors," the specialist added.

A telecoms billionaire, Thaksin was a fugitive from his own country for 15 years after fleeing to escape jail for corruption charges. While he may have kept in touch with Thai politics, it is indeed hardly reasonable to expect that he could have kept abreast of ever-changing Asean dynamics and geopolitics. 

Former Malaysian ambassador Dennis Ignatius described the Thaksin appointment as "weird" and "completely unnecessary". 

"Normally, Asean countries use their tenure as chairman to showcase their leadership and make their own unique contribution to strengthening Asean," said Ignatius, who served as envoy to Chile, Argentina and Canada, as well as in various diplomatic posts in London, Beijing and Washington.

"Besides, Thaksin - a very controversial figure - is a strange choice. Najib would be better qualified. This is bound to raise eyebrows in Asean capitals," added Ignatius.

Perhaps it is timely for Anwar to get a reminder that dragging Malaysia's rather sordid and conspiracy-riddled internal politics onto the international stage could damage the country in more ways than one.

Not only could it lose Malaysia the respect of its neighbors and the global community but Anwar's own image and credibility would stand to get the biggest dent. If not careful, he might even end up a laughing stock on the international stage.

Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow Malaysia

https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/