GAME OVER FOR ANWAR-ZAHID 'SEA CHANGE' - NENGGIRI THE DEATH BLOW FOR ZAHID - JUST AS SUNGEI BAKAP THE WATERLOO ANWAR REFUSES TO SEE?
Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow!
KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - Talk about the Malaysian Chinese Association or MCA leaving embattled Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's government comes as no surprise - with many in its long-time ally parties Umno and MIC already pestering for a similar shift-out.But will MCA president Wee Ka Siong have the guts to lead the way - or will Wee wait for 'big brother' Umno to pull the rug out from under Anwar's feet first, a move that will surely capsize Anwar's unity government?
THE 'SEA CHANGE' THAT NEVER CAME
"It's no secret MCA, MIC and more than half of Umno wanted to align with Perikatan Nasional to form the new government in 2022 and not with Anwar and Pakatan Harapan. But it was Zahid Hamidi and Najib Razak who wanted to go with Anwar, perhaps because they saw him as a way out from their corruption charges," an analyst told PoliticsNow!
"So it just shows nothing much has changed. Definitely no sea change that everyone had hoped for from a Pakatan and Umno union that would bring about a more equitable and progressive Malaysia. In fact the opposite seems to have happened, with the Anwar administration becoming more authoritarian than the Muhyiddin and Najib regimes.We see ongoing and escalating government efforts to gag critics and civil society while the ordinary folk are suffering the most because of poor handling of financial and economic resources.
"What is much clearer now is that PN was perhaps the better choice for Umno because Anwar and Pakatan are very clearly a sinking ship. And no one sabotaged them, they torpedoed themselves. So for MCA and MIC, they should not wait but go as soon as they can. The benefits are clear in that PN will need these two parties for multiracial veneer, so to speak. So that PN can make a show that it is not just a government for Malays."
"The real question mark is actually on Umno. Do the core PN parties, which are Bersatu and Pas, really need Umno when the next general election comes in 2027? The current view is that Bersatu and Pas can win almost every one of Umno's seats as well as Pakatan's Malay seats."
"So if Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan is able to take over the party presidency from Zahid and walk the BN coalition over to PN to form a new government, then Umno will still be of some use to PN because it can effect immediate power change due to the 30 seats Umno holds. But wait until the next election, I think Bersatu and Pas can easily make up the shortfall by wresting them from Umno and Pakatan to get a simple majority of their own. No need to fight over or give up any Malay seats to Umno to contest."
"So for Umno, either Mohamad Hasan seizes the day now when he still can negotiate better terms with PN or wait for doom. If he waits or is unable to oust Zahid, then I think those warlords in Umno who are strong and can retain their seats will do what the Bersatu six rogue MPs did but the opposite way by declaring loyalty to PN and then contest GE16 as PN candidates because by then Umno won't be a winnable name anymore with the Malays."
The analyst was referring to six members of Parliament who had declared support for Anwar and his government while insisting they were still loyal to their party although this represents a direct conflict in interest as Bersatu is in the opposition. Although Bersatu has since voided their party memberships, the Parliament speaker who is from Anwar's party has refused to call for by-elections that would allow constituents to decide on a fresh mandate on the grounds that the six had not vacated their seats despite being terminated from Bersatu.
SUNGEI BAKAP AND NENGGIRI BAROMETERS FOR ANWAR AND ZAHID
Umno big guns who still look 'winnable' come GE16
Perhaps two by-elections will provide the barometer as to what lies ahead for the troubled Anwar and his controversial deputy prime minister Zahid Hamidi. One is for the Sungei Bakap, Penang state seat which Anwar's PKR party lost in a thundering defeat earlier this month.
The second is the Nenggiri, Kelantan state seat due to be balloted on August 17 in which Umno is due to take on Bersatu. If Umno fails to wrest this seat from Bersatu, then it is game over for the once mighty party, almost the sole choice of the Malays for some six decades, until an overkill of corruption by the Najib regime led to its historic downfall.
Umno along with its perceived vassal parties MCA and MIC or the Malaysian Indian Congress are the three main components that make up the Barisan Nasional or BN coalition that had ruled Malaysia until 2018, when their hegemony was finally overthrown due to voters rejecting Najib Razak, the disgraced former Umno president and ex-prime minister now in jail for corruption.
"Failure at Nenggiri will show Malays have moved on from Umno. It's also a sign of their distaste for Anwar and Pakatan. It's something Umno has to accept. In GE16, it will be lucky to even win 20 seats no matter how hard it tries to reinvent itself. So unless Zahid takes responsibility and steps down or he gets thrown out fast, Mohamad Hasan will find himself the leader of a mosquito Malay party of maybe a dozen or less seats, not like Bersatu and Pas which will become the premier Malay parties.
"As for Anwar, the writing is on the wall when his own party could not take Sungai Bakap even when he has all the power of the incumbent prime minister and the seat is close to his Permatang Pauh stronghold. PKR's 31 seats is now open season and their big guns including Rafizi Ramli, Fahmi Fadzil and even Anwar himself may get trounced in GE16."
PAS AND BERSATU ALL SET TO WIPE OUT UMNO AND PKR?
Anwar's PKR party had won 31 seats in the 15th general election in 2022, while ally parties DAP had won 40, Amanah 8 and Upko 2. The four parties make up the Pakatan Harapan coalition which rules Malaysia along with Umno's BN and East Malaysia's GPS and GRS coalitions.
In the opposition for decades, Pakatan had attracted enormous support and popularity especially with the non-Malays due to their promises of progressive reforms and a 'better' Malaysia. However, despite the breakthrough in 2022, team Anwar not only reneged on their promises but became "even worse" than the previous regimes - arbitrarily clamping down on freedom of speech, media and social media while fumbling at core policies and economic decisions that have resulted in local currency, the ringgit, falling to its lowest value in Malaysia's history and triggering the sharpest inflation and costs of living hikes with ill-timed and insensitive cuts in government subsides on essentials including diesel, electricity tariffs and rice.
It is telling of Anwar and DAP's unpopularity that in Nenggiri, the Umno chieftain in charge of the area Tengku Razaleigh, has ordered that all PKR and DAP leaders wishing to campaign for the Umno candidate needs to get his green light, lest the things they say and the manner in which they say it "jeopardizes the chances of reclaiming the seat".
"As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you: fool me twice, shame on me. So it would be foolish for Anwar to bank on non-Malay support in GE16. Even Chinese-led DAP will lose quite a few of their 40 seats. As for Malays, they gave up on Anwar years ago. In private, I understand that many call him Mr Unpredictable," opined the analyst.
"So if in GE15, it was voters revolt against Najib and Rosmah for a corruption level that was no longer tolerable - then in GE16, it will be a revolt by both Malays and non-Malays alike against Anwar and Pakatan for what they perceive as gross betrayal and beyond the limit hypocrisy," the analyst added.
Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow!
https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/
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