SAMSURI THE NEW PM, MAT HASAN & MUHYIDDIN HIS DPMs? - NEW POWER ALGORITHMS SURFACE DESPITE "WORRIED SICK" ANWAR, FAHMI BIDS TO DEFLECT ATTENTION TO BERSATU
Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow!
https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/
KUALA LUMPUR (politicsnowmy.blogspot.com) - If it's true every dog has its day, then Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, his top order-taker Fahmi Fadzil and their key ally Umno president Zahid Hamidi may soon find themselves pushed onto a roller coaster ride that stops at 'point oblivion - with no complimentary return tickets back to their current seats of power.
Over the past few days, a series of startling news had titillated afficionados of Malaysia's hyperactive political scene, which was already simmering with talk that the long-anticipated move to displace Anwar and Zahid from the top seats of power had begun. This time in earnest - and with the trigger being Anwar's 'Waterloo' defeat at the recent Sungai Bakap by-election, where his party had lost a state seat with a thundering majority to Pas, further confirming the writing on the wall that the sun was setting on the unity government he had cobbled together with Zahid and with the help of Malaysia's previous King.
The future, so the projection goes, now belonged to Pas, Bersatu and an Umno without Zahid, most likely to be helmed by Zahid's number two Mohamad Hasan. This would of course spell the end for Anwar and his Pakatan Harapan coalition which is made up of his PKR party, the DAP, Amanah and Upko parties.
And in with the new or perhaps 'new-old' to be more precise would be a top leadership headed by Pas' Ahmad Samsuri, currently the Terengganu chief minister, Umno's deputy president Mohamad Hasan, if he succeeds in taking over from Zahid and Muhyiddin Yassin, the former prime minister and founder of the Bersatu party now in the opposition. Whether Samsuri takes first go at being the 11th PM with Mohamad Hasan and Muhyiddin as his Deputy Prime Ministers would depend on who brings what to the negotiating table and whether the power change happens before or after the next general election.
"Anwar is a one-term PM. This is very clear. The very maximum he has is until his term expires in 2027. This is the opinion of the majority of pundits whether they want to say it out or not. Who becomes the next PM and how the Pas-Bersatu-Umno power sharing works out will depend on who wins the most seats and how they negotiate with each other," a political analyst told PoliticsNow!
"But yes, the people are waiting to kick Anwar and Pakatan out. They had one chance and they blew it because they were too 'confused', perhaps too vain and too arrogant. Now nobody will bother to listen to Anwar or Pakatan anymore. Most people will say to your face - only lies and broken promises will come out from their mouths. Unbearable costs of living, historic loss in value of the ringgit and a crackdown on freedom of speech, the press and social media that is matching or even worse than fourth prime minister Mahathir Mohamad's time," the analyst explained.
CLOCK TICKING DOWN ON A POWER CHANGE BEFORE 2027
Not only did the Sungai Bakap poll expose the embattled Anwar's weaknesses, the clock is also ticking down on a power change before 2027, which is the latest that Anwar can delay holding the next general election. Many political watchers believe he will be pressured to call for a snap GE16 way before then, perhaps next year or even before the end of this year. A key barometer on Anwar's exit date - be it before the end of 2024 or 2025, 2026 will be the Nenggiri by-election in Kelantan state due to be held next month on August 17.
That the Umno ground has started moving, with warlords and their clans busy testing the winds and how much more they could pressure Anwar, could be seen by how swiftly the family of disgraced former prime minister and former Umno president Najib Razak had 'suddenly' come out to deny they were involved in a plot to topple the Pahang state government, which is led by Umno but formed according to a power-sharing formula similar to Anwar's unity government at the federal level.
Even before the dust could settle on whether Najib's children were trying to press Anwar for more concessions for their dad, whose jail term has already been controversially and rather mysteriously cut to six years from 12, as well as for their mom Rosmah Mansor, who is also due to be jailed for corruption, the next to burst on the scene with breath-taking news was Pas, the country's largest and most influential Muslim-centric party.
Via its information chief Ahmad Fadhli, Pas announced that "several informal meetings" between Umno and Pas leaders had also taken place to "discuss cooperation for the 16th general election."
NOT SO FAST, FAHMI! "WORRIED SICK" CAN ONLY BE ANWAR - NOT BERSATU!
But the most bizarre response of all was perhaps from Fahmi, considered by many to be Malaysia's most underperforming and unpopular Communications minister so far. So manipulative was Fahmi's comment - that Bersatu, which is Pas' partner in the main PN opposition bloc, had the most to be worried about in the event of a tie-up with Umno - seen to be that it drew sniggers of scorn and contempt from many political watchers and pundits.
"The ones who are 'worried sick' are actually Fahmi himself; his own boss Anwar and their PKR party. And of course Zahid Hamidi. The heads of all three are on the chopping board," a veteran pundit told PoliticsNow!
"I don't know whether it's ethical for a minister and government spokesman to issue attention-deflecting political statements but if just as a rival politician, Fahmi might want to throw the hot potato to Bersatu. But obviously, if a Pas-Umno alliance can be struck it will surely include Bersatu as well. It's based on the same power-sharing model as during the time of former premiers Muhyiddin Yassin and Ismail Sabri.
"It's Fahmi slapping his own face because of course, PKR and Anwar will be last to be invited because Anwar is the one they want to bring down and they want him down because he's seen as weak and he's weak because he has, arguably or not, failed in almost every area of policy-making and governance. The only tangible difference Pakatan Harapan has brought since coming to power in 20222 is how despotic and authoritarian the Anwar regime has become compared to Muhyiddin's or Ismail Sabri's and even Najib Razak's. The current clamp-down on social media, blogs and freedom of speech is unprecedented and maybe matched only by Mahathir Mohamad during his first season as prime minister," the pundit opined.
IF NOT ZAHID, WHO DID PAS MEET WITH? MOHAMAD HASAN, HISHAM, ISMAIL?
According to political insiders, it is "very telling" that Zahid admitted he did not meet any Pas leader or know of any meeting that had taken place "officially" - which he would surely know since he was the president. "Pas leaders did not meet with me. Perhaps if there were any meetings they were done in a personal capacity and not formally," Zahid had immediately shot back when the Pas news broke.
"It adds steam to the movement within Umno to oust Zahid as president. Mohamad Hasan is seen as the favouite to replace him. Former premier Ismail Sabri and ex-senior minister Hishammuddin Hussein are always there waiting in the wings too. Once Zahid goes, I believe Umno will withdraw from Anwar's unity government and fall back into its previous arrangement in PN with Pas and Bersatu," a Pakatan insider told PoliticsNow!
"It's all about timing. For Pas and Bersatu, it's okay if Umno joins them now as that means they get to control the government earlier than 2027. If no one rocks the boat and everyone waits till 2027, Pas and Bersatu will still be okay. But for Umno, the delay could be disastrous because it's obvious they will lose more seats. The 30 they have in the federal Parliament right now are not safe and almost certainly will be gobbled up by Pas and Bersatu. So if Umno warlords want to save their party, it's better they make a move against Zahid and Anwar now - or lose Umno forever in GE16," added the insider.
THE PETITE MINISTER, THE LAME DUCK PM AND THE WILY FOX PRESIDENT
As for Anwar's petite minister of communications Fahmi, his interpretation - professional or not - of the Pas-Umno meeting was:
"What we know at this time, the main leadership in Umno and Barisan Nasional, stated that there was no discussion with PAS. I think the one who feels more scared is Bersatu. Whatever it is, I’m sure Bersatu must be worried sick about this," Fahmi had told a press conference after Wednesday's Cabinet meeting.
“We know that many people in Nenggiri hope that Pas will contest there. So, I think the most worried is Bersatu. They know and understand that they are a liability to PN and also Pas," Fahmi had added.
All eyes are now on August 17 and who will win at Nenggiri. Will Fahmi be forced to eat his words? Not that anyone without vested interests would care since he belongs to the coterie of Little Napoleon ministers that like to encircle Anwar and is not himself a leader of first-tier standing.
As for Anwar, said to have already met his Waterloo at Sungai Bakap and his lifespan as PM very clearly defined as not exceeding 2027 - which actually makes him a 'lame-duck' PM with interest among Malay voters already shifting to Pas' Samsuri and Umno's Mohamad Hasan.
For the wily fox Zahid, it's never wise to write him off too early because unlike Anwar, he understands how the Umno mind works. But twist and turn whichever way he can, perhaps all his machinations have been smoked out and all exits closed off. Most of all, Zahid's own zest to stay in the game is visibly no longer strong as it was before. Already a massively wealthy man with a recent run in with prostrate cancer, Zahid has also got what he wanted most from Anwar regime - the infamous DNAA or discharge not amounting to an acquittal from an epic 47 counts of corruption!
Written by Wong Choon Mei, PoliticsNow!
https://politicsnowmy.blogspot.com/
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