PELANGAI THE BELLWETHER SEAT PAS-PN CANNOT AFFORD NOT TO WIN - IF ANWAR & ZAHID FAIL TO STAVE OFF HADI & MUHYIDDIN, THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF UNITY GOVT CAN SURVIVE A FULL TERM IN POWER 

KUALA LUMPUR (Politics Now!) - A three-cornered fight has been confirmed for the Pelangai, Pahang by-election due to be balloted on October 7 and the going doesn't look good for the unity government led by Pakatan-Umno.

Whilst Pelangai is in Umno-controlled Pahang state, the constituency is 70% dominated by Malay voters and with PAS-Bersatu now the apple of Malay eyes, the chances are good for the Perikatan coalition to snatch the seat.

“Although voter turnout was low in Pulai, PN still managed to get 9,000 more votes compared with the general election in November.,' Free Malaysia Today reported analyst Azmi Hassan of think tank Akademi Nusantara as saying.

“If PN can maintain the best position they have had in collecting Malay voters, then it is very dangerous for the unity government." 

BELLWETHER SEAT

The Pelangai seat fell vacant after Umno assemblyman and Pahang exco member Johari Harun died in the plane crash near Bandar Elmina in Shah Alam on Aug 17. 

The three candidates nominated to stand in the ballot are Umno's Amizar Abu Adam, PN’s Kasim Samat and independent candidate Haslihelmy DM Zulhasli.

Amizar is a committee member at Bentong Umno, while Kasim, who is from PAS, is contesting the seat a second time after losing it to the late Johari during the 15th general election or GE15.

The seat is considered an Umno stronghold, with Johari winning with a majority of 4,048 votes after  defeating Kasim, Pakatan Harapan’s Ahmed Wafiuddin Shamsuri and Isa Ahmad of Pejuang during GE15.

The Pelangai outcome is closely watched as bellwether for PN's strength. The coalition, led by Bersatu chief and ex-prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, shocked the country when its 'Green Wave' swept nearly enough seats to form the government during the 15th General Election last year. 

PN's star is the extremist Muslim party PAS, which alone won 49 out of the coalition's total 74 seats. PAS, led by the hardline cleric Hadi Awang, sees itself a 'government-in-waiting'.

WANING OR GROWING EVEN FASTER!

Nonetheless, there are many including DAP strategist Liew Chin Tong, who believe PAS' influence - and hence PN's - among the Malays has peaked and is now waning. 

They believe PAS and Bersatu will need to moderate their Malay-centric stance and reach out to the non-Malays if PN is to increase its share of seats and wrest the federal government from the Pakatan-Umno coalition led by PM Anwar Ibrahim. 

So far, PN has not reduced its inflammatory racial rhetoric aimed to gather Malay support by making the predominant race in the country fear the minority non-Malays.

Pakatan-Umno will still “need to win at least 30% Malay votes in every Malay-majority area” - not at all an easy task - if it wants to hang onto power, estimates analyst Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.

.“This explains their (PN's) influence over traditional Malay voters and Malays who are into race politics,” said Mazlan.

-Politics Now!